Analysis of the hottest auto industry in 2018 sale

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Analysis of the automotive industry in 2018: the Chinese and American markets are gradually cooling down, and there are hidden opportunities for stable sales

Abstract: is the tepid car sales in 2017 the beginning of the new normal? It is likely that the new year will be more controversial

with a series of policy statements to be announced by the US government in 2018, and considering the potential impact of these policies on the automotive industry, it is expected that the overall industry sales will remain stable

autonomous driving technology and electric vehicle technology will continue to make headlines for automobile manufacturers and suppliers, as the industry will strive to find opportunities in the rapidly changing market

at the same time, automobile sales will continue to remain stable, and the final figure will be close to the expected sales of 17.1 million vehicles in 2017

however, this does not mean that there will be no bright spots in the market in the coming year

auto parts retailers are expected to operate well in 2018 and become one of the biggest beneficiaries of corporate tax reform. As more and more automobile models enter the "best price" range, there will be a demand for parts

on the other hand, car dealers may encounter some market weakness after experiencing a surge in demand for several months

analysts predict that the sales volume will decline in 2018, the Chinese market will cool down, and the industry will experience a legendary transformation of technology changing traditional industries

expert comments

adamjonas of Morgan Stanley:

it is expected that the U.S. auto sales will decline by about 5% to 16.5 million

the trend of car rental in the United States will continue or even accelerate, because under the background of the rapid development of automobile interconnection, electrification and automatic driving technology, consumers tend to buy long-term used cars in no hurry

all businesses in the traditional automobile industry hope to occupy a dominant position in the new technology opportunities or at least keep up with the trend, and there will be more and more information disclosure in the future

Goodyear tire was rated as the first choice in the industry. Its business model is closer to the "Mile economy". In the new industry environment, cars (especially autonomous vehicle) will run more miles, so it can better meet the needs of tire replacement

it is expected that 2018 will be another difficult year for the car rental industry, especially for hertz and Avis

"although the management of both companies seem to understand the current difficult task, we do not think that investors can get enough compensation for their business risks."

UBS colinlangan:

put the 2018 American automobile 7 In the process of lifting the pendulum, the sales forecast of vehicles with obstacles was lowered from 17.2 million to 17.1 million to reflect the decline in demand caused by the technology storm in 2017

automobile production is expected to increase by about 2%, reflecting the renewal of smaller inventories and the increase of production capacity

for most companies, foreign exchange transactions in 2018 may be a free ride for sales growth

the tax reform act of the United States will reduce taxes. The tax rates of Ford and general motors may be reduced by 7%-11%, while the tax rates of suppliers have been reduced by 2%-4%

the risk of NAFTA negotiation failure should not be ignored, because the cost may rise by 0.7%-5.4%, which represents the risk of GM trucks and suppliers exporting to Mexico and Canada, such as APTIV, Delphi, Magna, Lear, Visteon and other companies will be affected

Royal Bank of Canada josephspak:

the industry is undergoing technological changes. In these changes, secular automobile brands will be regarded as the promoters of the reform rather than traditional old brand manufacturers

the global automobile production may be lower than that in 2017, and the demand in China and the United States may slow down. It is expected that the U.S. automobile sales will decline by 1% to $16.9 million in 2018. However, even if the demand of the United States drops to about 16million in the next few years, this is still a "healthy level"

since the Internet + era, autonomous vehicle are expected to become the largest new market

it is expected that the price of used cars will decrease slightly in 2018 (probably at the beginning of the year), because the replacement demand for technology storm begins to weaken

the tax reform bill is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on demand, but it may have some comprehensive impact, which is good news for the company

the risk of the breakdown of NAFTA negotiations may cause a devastating blow to the entire automobile value chain

philippehouchois of Jefferies, an American investment bank:

if Goodyear's market share and profit momentum reverse in 2018, the company has significant room for growth in terms of profit and valuation

fiatchrysler's performance in 2018 should be close to what it announced. 6. Nico gualerzi, technical director of Italy's gamma meccanica company, introduced the company's key technical goals for the Extrusion board production line and automatic recycling device. This goal was released in 2014 and adjusted in 2016 to cover the impact of the equity split of its Ferrari

Bloomberg kevintynan and joellevington:

the sales cycle of new cars in the United States. The reason why it was selected for the water inlet (outlet) parts of the polimotor 2 was late. Under the influence of price competition, a large amount of investment in electric vehicles and automatic driving technology, its profit margin was at risk

the pursuit of new technologies has increased the valuation and compressed the profit margin. This is because these emerging projects are either unprofitable or take several years for consumers to adapt. Therefore, these overvalues may prove fragile in 2018

the expectation of auto suppliers will continue to decline in 2018, but it is still at a level that may be difficult for them to achieve, because the total sales of Ford, general motors and fiatchrysler are expected to remain stable in 2018

the rise of copper and aluminum prices, as well as the pursuit of industry trends such as electric power and artificial intelligence and the expenditure caused by production, may bring pressure to the industry

according to the data of, the auto loan interest rate increased by about 30 basis points in 2017. If this trend continues, the affordability of consumers to auto prices may also become a challenge for suppliers in 2018

the convergence and mixing trend among automobile manufacturers may also have an impact on suppliers' profits

anindyadas of Nomura Securities:

the Chinese market may further cool down in 2018, because in the early years, the car demand was advanced due to the preferential tax on car purchase, while the United States will remain roughly flat

in Europe, the demand of the UK continues to be affected by the brexit of the UK, but the European continent should benefit from the improved labor market

the sales volume of light vehicles in the United States is expected to reach 17.3 million in 2018, with a year-on-year increase of 1%

the improvement of the US economy, the healthy trend of the labor market and the continuous decline of oil prices will continue to support the potential demand for automobiles

Tesla is the first choice in the U.S. automotive industry

the company is recommended because its electric vehicle mileage per dollar is "obviously beyond", and it is believed that it will eventually overcome the production limitations of Model3

in 2018, it is expected that the electrification speed of automotive powertrain will continue to accelerate globally

susquehanna investment bank alifaghri:

the fundamentals of auto parts retailers are expected to improve in 2018

due to the slowdown in sales growth and the growing concern of investors about the potential collapse of Amazon, the performance of this sector is significantly lower than that of the S & P 500 index

both the survey and the company statement show that the sales trend of the industry is strengthening

by 2018, the same store sales are expected to further improve, because it is easier to compare, the trend of mixed age of car fleets has improved, and the previous weather factors have suppressed the demand

The car market demand of

years of age has reached the best position, and it is expected to start to grow again after contraction in 2018, which is driven by the sales growth of auto parts retailers in their potential market expansion

optimistic about advanceautoparts auto parts retailers and o'reillyautomotive automobile company

the fundamentals of the auto dealer industry will further deteriorate in the next few quarters, which may bring multiple pressures

industry data show that with the decrease of new car Saar (seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate) and the reversal of the price trend of used cars, the impact of taking a free ride has begun to fade, and the benefits of tax reform have begun to affect the stock price

except for M & A activities, the possibility of unexpected profit growth is very small

optimistic about penskeautomotive and lithia

National Association of automobile dealers:

as the demand for light trucks, off-road vehicles and crossover vehicles continues to maintain a healthy growth, it is estimated that 16.7 million new cars and light trucks will be sold

by 2018, new car dealers will have 15.3 million used cars, while the sales of used cars in 2017 is expected to be 15.1 million

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