Cremate the risk of overcapacity and promote the o

2022-09-28
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Resolve the risk of overcapacity and promote the orderly development of coal and electricity

the coal control research group of North China Electric Power University recently released the latest research report, "Research on coal control policies in the power industry during the 13th five year plan". Combined with the power demand scenario and the scale of coal-fired power under construction, the report looks forward to the utilization of coal-fired power capacity during the 13th five year plan, calculates the scale of coal-fired power overcapacity and the value of stranded assets, and puts forward policy paths to resolve coal-fired power overcapacity

the task of resolving overcapacity is arduous

yuan Jiahai, a professor at North China Electric Power University, said that the National Energy Administration recently issued the notice on early warning of the risk of coal power planning and construction in 2020 (hereinafter referred to as the notice), which aims to promote the orderly development of coal power and prevent and resolve the risk of coal power overcapacity. In fact, the problem of excess coal power in China has been quite serious since last year, and the national development and Reform Commission and the energy administration have constantly warned about construction risks. According to the financial report data of the first quarter of 2017, among the 38 home appliance enterprises, 16 fell into losses in the first quarter, and the net profit of 19 fell year-on-year. The coal power sector of key power generation enterprises has suffered a comprehensive loss

Zhang Weidong, deputy director of the reform department of the Ministry of industry development and environmental resources of the China Electricity Council, said that the power supply and demand analysis reports in 2016 and the first quarter of 2017 focused on the deterioration of coal power economy and the risk of overcapacity

in view of the problem of excess coal power, the report estimates that the installed capacity of 1.1 billion kw coal power in 2020 proposed in the 13th five year plan is 140million kW, which means that about 233 600000 kW coal power units and their derivative values will be stranded. Considering the initial investment, taxes and after tax profits, the total value of stranded assets is 2.45 trillion yuan after accounting. Further, according to the differences in the scale of coal power overcapacity in 2020 in various regions of the country, the value of coal power stranding in all provinces (cities, districts) is estimated. Xinjiang, Shanxi and Shandong have the largest scale of coal power overcapacity, and the corresponding coal power stranding value is also the largest, both above 200billion yuan, and even close to 250billion yuan in Xinjiang

authoritative institutions and experts have highly consistent views on the development planning and overcapacity of China's power industry. Among them, Zhou Dadi, vice president of the China Energy Research Association and former director of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said that excess power capacity not only greatly squeezed the capital gains of thermal power, but also caused a huge negative squeeze on the development of new energy in China. To achieve low-carbon energy, we must make great efforts to control the blind supply of coal-fired power as soon as possible. From the actual situation that there is a large amount of excess coal-fired power now, we need to resolutely stop and delay the construction of a large number of coal-fired power projects. Any reinvestment will cause new system economic losses without any system benefits

yuanjiahai, a professor at North China Electric Power University, said that the pace of power system reform was accelerating in 2017, and the construction of the power market was expected to take a key step. In particular, the official release of the "opinions on the implementation of the plan for the orderly release and development of electricity" made optimists likely to place their hopes on the formation of an effective mechanism for coal-fired power investment through market competition. However, if timely and effective measures are not taken to warn of the potential risk to the full outbreak of overcapacity in coal and electricity, the opportunity cost will be unbearable. And the market mechanism from formation to operation to really play a role is not overnight, so coal and electricity to reduce production capacity "can't wait", even more "can't afford to wait". On the other hand, the "unlicensed operation" of a large number of units (up to 10.6% of all coal-fired power units) exposed by the National Energy Administration's recent survey of generator unit licensing further reveals the arduous task of resolving the risk of overcapacity in coal-fired power. Without strong and accurate regulation and control policies, coal and electricity capacity reduction cannot be implemented. Therefore, we must take the courage of "breaking the wrist" to reduce production capacity when we have made up our minds

coal power development may reach a peak in 2020

the report believes that the period from 2017 to 2018 is the time node for the mid-term evaluation and revision of the "13th five year plan" power plan, and the work of capacity removal must be synchronized with the adjustment of planning objectives. More fundamental than the revision of planning objectives is to establish a total amount balance mechanism between national planning and provincial planning, and truly establish a binding total amount control mechanism for project approval

the research group believes that the peak development space of the coal power industry from 2016 to 2030 is about 860-960 million KW. Specifically, under the low-speed development scenario, China's coal power development space is expected to peak in 2016, with a peak of about 860 million KW, which will gradually decline after maintaining a platform period of 4-5 years. Under the scenario of high-speed development, China's coal power development space is expected to peak in 2020, with a peak of about 960 million KW, and then enter a platform period of about 10 years

a latest research report of the national energy academy also studied and judged the coal power installation demand in 2020 from three perspectives: meeting the electricity demand, meeting the electricity demand and meeting the flexible peak shaving demand. The conclusion is that the reasonable level of coal power installation in 2020 is no more than 980million kW. Without the approval of new coal-fired power projects, if all the approved projects are completed and put into operation, the excess scale will exceed 220million kW in 2020

Ruibo energy think tank pointed out that in view of the overcapacity of coal and electricity, under the condition of high demand growth (average annual growth rate of 4%) and the lack of 10 points of the scenario function target of the policy installation target, the system standby rate after meeting the maximum load in 2020 can be maintained at about 15% reasonable; Under the low demand growth (annual average growth rate of 1%) and the policy installation target, the system reserve rate after meeting the maximum load in 2020 will be as high as about 30%. At the same time, if the high demand growth is not achieved, then a considerable part of the new coal power investment will become stranded assets; On the contrary, energy efficiency investment on the tertiary industry and residential side can more effectively help China optimize power demand

Strict control of new coal-fired power units zouji, deputy director of the National Center for strategic research and international cooperation on climate change, said that even if there is no growth in coal-fired power during the 13th five year plan, China's future power demand can be basically met. We should strictly implement the policies already issued by the state and strictly control the new coal-fired power units during the 13th five year plan

in addition, through the analysis of the economy of coal-fired power projects, it is not difficult to find that with the gradual promotion of clean and low-carbon development policy, the economy of coal-fired power projects will be weakened. At the same time, if all projects under construction are successfully put into operation, the economy of coal-fired power projects will be further frustrated, especially in provinces with more new projects, and the internal rate of return of coal-fired power projects in some provinces will be lower than the industry average level, or even below zero

experts believe that the long-term direction of coal power regulation is to speed up market-oriented construction and establish a truly market-oriented power investment decision-making mechanism. However, the market is not omnipotent. It cannot be simply handed over to the market and try to solve all problems by competition. On the one hand, we should strengthen the top-level capacity-building and improve the scientificity and implementation of national and cross regional and cross domain planning. At the same time, we should speed up the construction of market supervision mechanism, including industry self-discipline mechanism, scientific prediction and optimization ability, information sharing ability and mechanism, necessary public evaluation mechanism, participation mechanism of various stakeholders, etc. Finally, the bottom line of administrative regulation cannot be abandoned and relaxed until effective market competition and long-term regulatory mechanisms are improved

the report suggests to formulate quantitative, decomposable and evaluable coal power regulation targets; Upgrade and implement the "three batches" coal power regulation policy, and cancel all coal power projects that do not meet the approval conditions; Combined with the reform of power system, explore and build the business model of electric coal-fired power units; Select typical provinces to carry out comprehensive reform pilot projects such as two-part electricity price and auxiliary service market, and design applicable market mechanisms for the gradual transformation of coal-fired power from electric power units to electric power units; Steadily promote the transformation of power investment mechanism from "plan" to "market"; Proper particle size; The main disadvantages of "administration + supervision + these two transmission modes: the former needs to regularly add lubricating oil market" coal power regulation policy combination fist

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